Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-11-05 — BEAR regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-11-05: BEAR regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BEAR (2 bullish / 4 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: walk_forward_ema on ETH raised 0.248 (0.46 → 0.71).
• Shadow portfolio: $719 (-28.10%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads neutral at 41/100; BTC dominance 60.1% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.2% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 34 days | Next CPI: in 8 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bearish: 2 BULL / 4 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): DOGE/SUI: r=0.94 ✅ | WIF/SUI: r=0.90 ✅ | SOL/DOGE: r=0.90 ✅ | ETH/DOGE: r=0.89 ✅ | DOGE/WIF: r=0.89 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.89 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

ETH/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd and tsmom have zero trades on both windows (rule 1: hold within ±0.05 of current); correlation_strategy and macro_strategy similarly have zero activity and are held at current. ema_cross has only 7 seven-day trades (borderline thin) with 43% win-rate but an extraordinary Sharpe of 7.81 and positive pnl, so a moderate lift to 0.50 is justified by the BULL regime alignment and strong risk-adjusted return, without overreacting to thin data. walk_forward_ema also shows 43% win on 14 trades but a spectacular 10.48 Sharpe and +297 pnl, warranting a similar lift to 0.52 per rule 4 and BULL regime. volume_spike looks stellar on 24h (58% win, +224 pnl) but on the more reliable 7d window collapses to 31% win-rate with Sharpe just under 1.0, triggering rule 2 (persistent underperformance) so it is cut to 0.20. bollinger has a positive 7d Sharpe (1.35) but only 40% win-rate and modest pnl in a BULL regime where band-walks are a known risk, so it is trimmed slightly to 0.24. post_shock_reversal shows strong 7d metrics (47% win, Sharpe 8.30, +293 pnl) but is a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL trend — data is positive so a small raise to 0.37 is appropriate without over-rewarding a regime-misaligned strategy. sentiment_strategy has only 25% confluence on the 7d window (contradictory sources) despite good 24h coverage, so it is reduced to 0.38 per the lower-weight-when-contradictory guidance.

BTC/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

rsi_macd has only 2 trades on 7d (rule 1 thin-data guard) but both a deeply negative Sharpe (-10.22) and negative pnl, so a modest cut to 0.15 is warranted while staying near current. volume_spike triggers rule 2+3: 7d win-rate 31% with negative Sharpe (-3.29) and negative pnl (-107), cut to 0.10. ema_cross is the standout performer (7d 55% win, Sharpe 17.48, +391 pnl) and earns a raise to 0.75 despite the SIDEWAYS regime, where the data clearly overrides the momentum discount (rule 6); bollinger holds near its already-elevated 0.82 as the SIDEWAYS-favoured mean-reversion strategy with positive Sharpe and pnl, capped near current to avoid a single-night overswing. tsmom and correlation_strategy have zero trades and are held near their current weights; sentiment_strategy is held steady given near-zero composite and modest confluence; walk_forward_ema earns a small lift to 0.65 on strong volatility-adjusted performance (7d Sharpe 10.92, +215 pnl, 50% win on 14 trades); post_shock_reversal gets a small nudge up to 0.35 as a mean-reversion family strategy suited to SIDEWAYS with positive 7d Sharpe and pnl despite a sub-50% win-rate.

WIF/USDT (BEAR):

rsi_macd, ema_cross, tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades on both windows, so rule 1 applies and weights are held at current. Bollinger has only 1 trade (7d) with a catastrophic Sharpe of -7.22 and negative pnl, so it is nudged down slightly within the low-sample guard (+/-0.05). volume_spike has sufficient 7d sample (41 trades) but a 22% win rate and negative 7d Sharpe/-30.92 pnl triggers rules 2-3, warranting a cut; the anomalous 24h Sharpe of 24.80 is a single-day artifact on 7 trades and does not override the weekly data. post_shock_reversal has a 7d win rate of 28% (below 30%), but its 7d Sharpe of 3.54 and pnl of +174.83 are genuinely positive, creating a conflict: persistent low win rate argues for a cut but positive risk-adjusted returns temper it, so a modest reduction is applied. sentiment_strategy has sparse coverage (2 sources, 50% confluence) in both windows, warranting a small downward nudge per the sentiment weighting rules. walk_forward_ema has only 5 trades on 7d, keeping it within the low-sample guard despite a high Sharpe.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.00 (neutral crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.08 (neutral) — “It’s a ‘socialist’ bank — and North Dakota Republicans love it”.

Most-talked alt: SOL/USDT at -0.06 (bearish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Ethereum Layer 2 Aztec gets Tierra V6 upgrade to support faster private apps — theblock — Score: +0.82

🟢 Bitcoin rebounds past $80,000 as markets shrug off midterms and Binance hack — theblock — Score: +0.42

🟢 Global asset manager Schroders brings emerging market bond fund to Solana — coindesk — Score: +0.36

⚠️ Coinbase net income surges 66% in third quarter, benefiting from bitcoin investment gains — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.34

⚠️ It’s a ‘socialist’ bank — and North Dakota Republicans love it — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.22

Academic Footnote

Care & Cumming (2024) — algorithmic trading and crypto market quality.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.