Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-11-03 — BEAR regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-11-03: BEAR regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BEAR (1 bullish / 6 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on BTC cut 0.179 (0.52 → 0.34).
• Shadow portfolio: $720 (-27.97%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads fear at 34/100; BTC dominance 60.0% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.6% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 36 days | Next CPI: in 10 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bearish: 1 BULL / 6 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): DOGE/SUI: r=0.94 ✅ | WIF/SUI: r=0.91 ✅ | SOL/DOGE: r=0.90 ✅ | BTC/DOGE: r=0.90 ✅ | ETH/DOGE: r=0.90 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.89 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

BTC/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

volume_spike is the clear loser: 7d win-rate 36% with Sharpe -2.78 and -66 pnl, so it is cut sharply per rules 2-3, reinforced by its well-known fakeout weakness in SIDEWAYS markets. rsi_macd is also penalised heavily (38% win, Sharpe -2.71, negative pnl) per rules 2-3, offset slightly by the SIDEWAYS regime which limits the cut floor. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema both show strong 7d Sharpe (9.03 and 7.01) with positive pnl despite the ranging regime — the data overrides the prior (rule 6 conflict noted), so both are raised, though ema_cross is held below its current 0.677 because the 24h window is sharply negative and the SIDEWAYS prior argues caution; walk_forward_ema is lifted toward 0.46 on its consistent volatility-adjusted result. Bollinger is held near 0.58 — it is regime-aligned for SIDEWAYS but its 7d win-rate of only 38% with modest pnl prevents a larger raise; sentiment_strategy is trimmed to 0.50 because 7d confluence is only 25% with near-zero composite, signalling contradictory and low-conviction sources; post_shock_reversal stays close to current on negative Sharpe but limited downside; tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy have zero trades and are held near their current weights per rule 1.

XRP/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

Bollinger is cut sharply from 0.646 despite the SIDEWAYS regime because its 7d metrics are severely negative (22% win-rate, -4.78 Sharpe, -117 pnl) — the data overrides the regime prior per rule 6, landing near 0.45 after blending. Volume_spike and post_shock_reversal both show persistent underperformance across 7d with sub-20% win-rates, deeply negative Sharpes, and meaningful negative pnl, so both are cut toward 0.10-0.15 per rules 2-3. Sentiment_strategy earns a small lift to 0.60 on good 7d coverage (4 sources), a 75% confluence rate, and stable composite, consistent with its regime-neutral trusted-when-confluent role. All zero-trade strategies (rsi_macd, ema_cross, tsmom, correlation_strategy, macro_strategy) are held near their current weights per rule 1 (no data to act on), and walk_forward_ema is held at 0.17 on the same thin-data basis.

BNB/USDT (BULL):

In a confirmed BULL regime, ema_cross earns a modest hold near its elevated weight (7d 36% win is below 55% but Sharpe 5.82 and +138 pnl are strong, rule 4 partially fires) and walk_forward_ema similarly posts excellent 7d Sharpe 7.74 with +169 pnl justifying a high weight despite a weak win-rate, consistent with Tzouvanas volatility-targeting evidence. tsmom is a severe cut: 7d win 26% and Sharpe -6.68 with -214 pnl means it is actively destroying value in a regime it should favour — data overrides prior per rule 6. volume_spike is cut hard on persistent 7d losses (31% win, Sharpe -2.62, -128 pnl, rule 3) and bollinger is near the floor given its 7d negative Sharpe and pnl in a trending market where band-walk risk is high; sentiment is nudged down from 0.563 because both coverage and confluence are very weak (25-33% confluence, near-zero composite), while correlation_strategy and macro_strategy hold near current as they reported no signals this period.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: -0.50 (bearish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.06 (neutral) — “It’s a ‘socialist’ bank — and North Dakota Republicans love it”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.51 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🔴 Bitcoin slides below $77,000, BNB drops amid Binance hack — theblock — Score: -0.61

🔴 FBI confirms North Korea’s role in $6 billion Binance hack, asks DeFi community to block BTC, ETH, SOL addresses — coindesk — Score: -0.44

⚠️ Coinbase net income surges 66% in third quarter, benefiting from bitcoin investment gains — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.34

🟢 Binance completes latest proof of reserves as it works to restore assets, withdrawals after record hack — theblock — Score: +0.34

⚠️ It’s a ‘socialist’ bank — and North Dakota Republicans love it — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.21

Academic Footnote

Wen et al. (2022) — overreaction and short-term reversal in crypto.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.