Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-10-12 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-10-12: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (7 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: ema_cross on SUI raised 0.401 (0.23 → 0.63).
• Shadow portfolio: $719 (-28.06%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads neutral at 57/100; BTC dominance 59.4% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.1% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 16 days | Next CPI: in 1 day | position-size modifier 0.60×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 7 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): XRP/DOGE: r=0.89 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.87 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.87 ✅ | BTC/XRP: r=0.86 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.86 ✅ | ETH/XRP: r=0.85 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

SUI/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd holds a strong 7d Sharpe of 7.22 with positive pnl (+114.92) and is a momentum strategy well-suited to the confirmed BULL regime, so despite the weak 24h win-rate I keep it elevated but trim slightly from its very high 0.839 given only 41% 7d win-rate falling short of rule 4’s 55% threshold. bollinger has negative 7d Sharpe and negative pnl with a 33% win-rate — a classic band-walk victim in a BULL trend — so it is cut per rules 2-3 toward the low end. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema show identical 7d metrics (45% win, 8.24 Sharpe, +98.74 pnl) with positive momentum signals, but their current weights are very low at 0.225; the strong Sharpe justifies a modest raise though the sub-55% win-rate caps the boost, and the 24h Sharpe is anomalously high on only 4 trades so caution is warranted. volume_spike has a low 36% 7d win-rate but a strong 7d Sharpe of 7.82 and large positive pnl (+199.57), justifying a moderate hold near current levels with a slight trim from 0.687; tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy have zero trades across both windows so they are held near their current weights per rule 1; post_shock_reversal is a mean-reversion strategy underperforming in a BULL regime with sub-40% win-rates and minimal pnl so it is trimmed modestly; sentiment_strategy has only 2 sources with 50% confluence and a near-neutral composite, warranting a slight reduction from 0.684 toward neutral.

DOGE/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

Most strategies have zero trades on 7d and are held near current weights per rule 1 (low-sample guard). post_shock_reversal is the clear exception: 7d win_rate of 20% (rule 2) and deeply negative Sharpe of -4.62 and -16.29 over both windows with negative pnl fires rules 2-3, so I cut it from 0.350 toward 0.20, constrained by the smoothness rule. volume_spike has 15 7d trades with a positive pnl (+122.97) and earns a small SIDEWAYS-regime bump despite a below-50% win-rate, moved modestly from 0.145 to 0.175. sentiment_strategy is trimmed slightly from 0.721 to 0.68 reflecting only 3 sources, near-zero composite sentiment (-0.02), and very weak confluence (33%), signalling contradictory or sparse lanes that reduce its reliability.

XRP/USDT (BULL):

ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are catastrophic failures (7d win-rate 0%, deeply negative Sharpe and pnl) and are cut hard toward 0.10 per rules 2-3 despite the BULL regime — data overrides the regime prior (rule 6). rsi_macd earns a modest raise to 0.62 on its positive 7d pnl and BULL alignment, though its 47% 7d win-rate tempers enthusiasm; volume_spike is raised slightly on strong pnl and Sharpe but kept below neutral given only 50% 7d win-rate. bollinger is reduced further on persistent negative Sharpe and pnl in a trending market (band-walk risk), while post_shock_reversal is trimmed slightly as a mean-reversion strategy ill-suited to a confirmed BULL. tsmom stays near current weight under rule 1 (zero trades, no signal). Sentiment_strategy is nudged up slightly given consistent 3-source coverage and 67% confluence, though near-zero avg_composite limits conviction; correlation and macro strategies hold near current with no active signals.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): -0.03 (neutral) — “The struggle to fix Africa’s debt crisis”.

Most-talked alt: XRP/USDT at +0.55 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🔴 XRP Ledger patches decade-old bug that could have minted trillions of XRP — theblock — Score: -0.57

🔴 Solana is about to halve its block times as final 200-millisecond upgrade nears — coindesk — Score: -0.44

🟢 Securitize launches 1:1-backed tokenized stocks, starting with Apple, Nvidia, Strategy and more — theblock — Score: +0.34

⚠️ The struggle to fix Africa’s debt crisis — ft_markets — Score: -0.32

🟢 XRP Ledger patched decade-old bug that could create billions of dollars in XRP from nothing — coindesk — Score: +0.27

📈 System Architecture

The four-panel Bayesian fusion engine behind these daily decisions (shown Mondays). See Methodology.

Academic Footnote

Fang et al. (2020) — a survey of cryptocurrency trading strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.