Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-10-03 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-10-03: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (8 bullish / 1 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on XRP raised 0.377 (0.18 → 0.55).
• Shadow portfolio: $723 (-27.66%), 2 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 67/100; BTC dominance 59.1% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 25 days | Next CPI: in 10 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 8 BULL / 1 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.90 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.90 ✅ | XRP/DOGE: r=0.87 ✅ | XRP/DOGE: r=0.86 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.86 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.86 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

XRP/USDT (BULL):

Bollinger, ema_cross, walk_forward_ema, and volume_spike all show catastrophic 7d performance (win rates 25-30%, sharpes as low as -33, deeply negative pnl), triggering rule 2/3 cuts toward the 0.10-0.15 floor — notably ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical disastrous 7d metrics (-9.01 Sharpe, -382 pnl) so both are cut hard despite the BULL regime favouring momentum (rule 6 conflict: data overrides regime prior). rsi_macd has only 1 trade on 7d so rule 1 applies and it stays near its current low weight of 0.18. tsmom has zero trades and is held near its current weight of 0.34 per rule 1. post_shock_reversal is trimmed modestly from 0.396 to 0.20 given its negative 7d Sharpe (-2.38) and 31% win rate below the 30% threshold, while sentiment_strategy earns a small bump to 0.78 on its strong confluence (100%) and solid 4-source coverage with consistent mild bullish composite, consistent with the BULL regime. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero signal activity and are held near their current weights per rule 1.

AVAX/USDT (BULL):

Nearly every price-based strategy is deeply underwater on 7d: bollinger (27% win, -4.30 Sharpe, -451 pnl) and volume_spike (31% win, -4.61 Sharpe, -524 pnl) are cut hard toward 0.10 per rules 2-3; ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical catastrophic 7d metrics (28% win, -3.37 Sharpe, -238 pnl) so both are slashed well below their current weights despite the BULL regime — the data clearly contradicts the momentum prior (rule 6 conflict). rsi_macd has only 12 7d trades with a -1.81 Sharpe, so it is reduced but kept above floor. tsmom and post_shock_reversal have zero trades (rule 1 thin-data guard) so they are held near current weight with only a small nudge; tsmom gets a modest BULL-regime tilt while post_shock_reversal, a mean-reversion empirical, is trimmed slightly. Sentiment_strategy shows 100% confluence across 3 sources on 7d with consistent mild-positive composite, warranting a modest reduction from its elevated 0.703 to 0.65 to reflect the weak signal strength; correlation and macro carry no active signals and are held near their current weights.

ETH/USDT (BULL):

In a confirmed BULL regime, ema_cross earns a boost to 0.75 on strong 7d metrics (40% win, Sharpe 6.01, +195 pnl) and regime alignment, while walk_forward_ema is held near its high current weight of 0.87 given outstanding 7d Sharpe of 7.51 and +225 pnl per rule 4. volume_spike is cut sharply to 0.15 given persistent underperformance across both windows (28% win, Sharpe -6.85, -232 pnl), firing rules 2 and 3 simultaneously. bollinger is reduced to 0.32 per rule 3 (7d Sharpe -1.45, negative pnl) and the BULL regime band-walk risk; post_shock_reversal stays modestly below current at 0.48 since its 7d win rate of 38% is modest and it is a mean-reversion strategy less suited to a trending market, while tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades and are held near their current weights per rule 1, and sentiment_strategy is nudged up slightly to 0.75 on strong 7d coverage and 100% confluence.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.07 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its”.

Most-talked alt: XRP/USDT at +0.73 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Evernorth shareholders approve $1 billion XRP treasury deal, clearing path to Nasdaq debut — theblock — Score: +0.96

🟢 DogeOS launches testnet to bring EVM smart contracts to Dogecoin — theblock — Score: +0.71

🟢 Dogecoin gets DeFi testnet as DogeOS bets miners will eventually secure its apps — coindesk — Score: +0.34

🟢 Live updates: Bitcoin closing out best quarter since 2024, ether its best since 2021 — coindesk — Score: +0.31

⚠️ Why Xi believes the U.S. and China can overcome the ‘Thucydides Trap’ — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.18

Academic Footnote

Addy et al. (2024) — cointegration-based crypto pairs strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.