Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-10-02 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-10-02: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: walk_forward_ema on BTC cut 0.280 (0.62 → 0.35).
• Shadow portfolio: $723 (-27.65%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 68/100; BTC dominance 59.0% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 26 days | Next CPI: in 11 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.92 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.92 ✅ | XRP/DOGE: r=0.87 ✅ | XRP/DOGE: r=0.87 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.86 ✅ | BNB/DOGE: r=0.86 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

BTC/USDT (BULL):

volume_spike is the clearest loser: 7d win-rate of 24% with a deeply negative Sharpe (-9.96) and large negative pnl (-289), so it is cut near the floor per rules 2-3, barely above its current 0.122. walk_forward_ema also fires rule 3 with a negative 7d Sharpe (-2.44) and negative pnl despite a BULL regime, so it is trimmed from 0.625 toward 0.45; its 24h collapse (0% win, Sharpe -35) reinforces the cut. rsi_macd and ema_cross show a conflict: their 7d win-rates are below 40% (rule 2 territory) which contradicts the BULL regime prior, but their 7d Sharpes remain positive and pnl modestly positive, so I trust the data over the prior and hold them near neutral rather than raising them aggressively. sentiment_strategy earns a small lift to 0.78 on four-source coverage with 100% confluence and a consistent mild positive composite across both windows. post_shock_reversal is kept at 0.55 on its solid 7d Sharpe (8.04) and positive pnl despite being a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime, where the data clearly outweighs the regime conflict (rule 6). tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades and are held within +/-0.05 of their current weights per rule 1.

WIF/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd is trimmed modestly from 0.744 despite its enormous 7d Sharpe (9.64) because the 43% win rate falls short of rule 4’s 55% threshold and the Sharpe figures look pathologically large (likely scale artefacts), so a measured reduction is warranted rather than a raise; it remains the top-weighted price strategy given positive pnl. volume_spike is cut to 0.22 per rule 3: its 7d Sharpe is negative (-0.61) and 7d pnl is -108.95, directly contradicting the BULL regime alignment, so data overrides the regime nudge (rule 6). bollinger falls further from 0.581 toward 0.38 due to its 24h collapse (-17.20 Sharpe, 14% win, -286.80 pnl) and its structural weakness in trending BULL markets (band-walk risk), even though 7d pnl is positive. tsmom and correlation_strategy/macro_strategy each have zero trades on both windows (rule 1 low-sample guard), so they are held near their current weights with only negligible drift; sentiment_strategy gets a small lift to 0.63 given perfect confluence (100%) across 3 sources on both windows, consistent with its weighting criteria.

SOL/USDT (BULL):

ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are the clearest cuts: both show 7d win-rates of 31-32% with deeply negative Sharpe (-1.75 and -2.41) and negative pnl, triggering rules 2-3 simultaneously — a direct conflict with the BULL regime prior (rule 6) so the data wins and both are reduced meaningfully. rsi_macd has a concerning 35% 7d win-rate and negative 24h Sharpe, but its 7d Sharpe of 1.07 and positive pnl prevent a hard cut under rule 3; it is nudged down from its elevated current weight. bollinger’s 7d Sharpe of 9.49 and +512 pnl are exceptional, and although it is the classic band-walk casualty in a BULL trend, the data overwhelmingly overrides the regime prior (rule 6), earning a raise; volume_spike similarly shows strong Sharpe and pnl and gets a modest lift. post_shock_reversal has a negative 7d Sharpe (-0.38) and negative pnl despite a deceptive 24h spike, so it is trimmed per rule 3. tsmom has zero trades (rule 1, held near current). sentiment_strategy has full 4-source coverage with 100% confluence and is held near its current elevated weight. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both show zero activity and are held within the low-data guard band near their current weights.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.02 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board finalizes changes to enhance the transparency and public accountability of its”.

Most-talked alt: XRP/USDT at +0.67 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Evernorth shareholders approve $1 billion XRP treasury deal, clearing path to Nasdaq debut — theblock — Score: +0.96

🟢 DogeOS launches testnet to bring EVM smart contracts to Dogecoin — theblock — Score: +0.71

🟢 Live updates: Bitcoin closing out best quarter since 2024, ether its best since 2021 — coindesk — Score: +0.38

🟢 Dogecoin gets DeFi testnet as DogeOS bets miners will eventually secure its apps — coindesk — Score: +0.34

⚠️ Why Xi believes the U.S. and China can overcome the ‘Thucydides Trap’ — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.16

Academic Footnote

Care & Cumming (2024) — algorithmic trading and crypto market quality.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.