Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-30 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-30: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: walk_forward_ema on XRP cut 0.361 (0.66 → 0.30).
• Shadow portfolio: $724 (-27.65%), 2 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 67/100; BTC dominance 58.6% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.0% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 28 days | Next CPI: in 13 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.92 ✅ | XRP/DOGE: r=0.86 ✅ | BNB/DOGE: r=0.86 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.85 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.84 ✅ | BTC/BNB: r=0.84 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

XRP/USDT (BULL):

ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical catastrophic 7d metrics (26% win, -10.38 Sharpe, -513 pnl) triggering rule 2+3 hard cuts to near-floor despite the BULL regime — a clear data-overrides-regime conflict (rule 6). bollinger also earns a near-floor cut (27% win, -5.84 Sharpe, -492 pnl) as the BULL regime’s band-walk is destroying it. rsi_macd and volume_spike both show negative 7d Sharpe and sub-35% win-rates so are reduced, but less aggressively given their smaller losses; tsmom and post_shock_reversal are trimmed modestly on negative 7d Sharpe (rule 3) but held closer to current given thin signals and smaller drawdowns. sentiment_strategy earns a slight raise given 100% confluence across 3 sources and a consistently positive composite in both windows. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy have zero trades/signals in both windows so are held within ±0.01 of current per the no-signal holding rule.

SUI/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd is cut hard (7d win 34%, Sharpe -0.76, negative pnl) per rules 2-3 — a clear conflict with the BULL regime where it should be thriving. tsmom is slashed toward the floor: 7d win 20% with Sharpe -8.51 and -783 pnl satisfies rule 2’s persistent-underperformance cut, making it the worst performer on the sheet. volume_spike earns the largest raise — 7d Sharpe 10.19, +1433 pnl, and 85 trades provide high-confidence data (rule 4), and it is regime-agnostic so no conflict. bollinger’s 7d Sharpe 6.85 and +878 pnl are strong on their own, though the BULL regime typically penalises mean-reversion; the data wins over the prior (rule 6), so it is raised modestly rather than cut. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical 7d stats (35% win, Sharpe 0.82, +48 pnl) — positive Sharpe and pnl but sub-55% win-rate prevent a rule-4 raise; they receive only a small BULL nudge off their already-depressed bases. post_shock_reversal has positive 7d Sharpe and pnl but sub-40% win-rate so it holds near current. sentiment_strategy shows full confluence across 3 sources with mildly positive composite, warranting a slight reduction from 0.70 toward 0.68 reflecting near-neutral signal strength. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy report zero activity in both windows; held near current weight per the thin-data guard.

WIF/USDT (BULL):

volume_spike is the clearest cut: 7d win-rate of 28% with a deeply negative Sharpe (-8.69) and pnl (-1094.81) triggers rules 2-3 hard, so it is dropped near the floor to 0.10. rsi_macd has an adequate 24h but a 7d win-rate of only 36% with negative Sharpe (-0.41) and negative pnl, so it is trimmed below its current weight per rule 3 despite the BULL regime (rule 6 conflict: momentum is losing money in a bull). bollinger is the surprise standout with a strong 7d Sharpe (7.11) and large positive pnl (863.98), earning a raise per rule 4; post_shock_reversal also shows positive 7d pnl and Sharpe but is a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime so a mild trim from its high current weight is applied, leaving it elevated but not dominant. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical 7d metrics (38% win, 1.70 Sharpe, +128 pnl) — positive but sub-55% win-rate prevents a rule-4 boost, so small regime-alignment nudges only; tsmom has zero trades (rule 1, hold within ±0.05); sentiment_strategy gets a small bump on its 100% confluence and consistent coverage; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy are zero-trade non-price voters held near their current weights.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.05 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Coastal Bend Bancshares, Inc.”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🔴 Bitget hacker moves $83 million in stolen XRP beyond reach of freeze controls — coindesk — Score: -0.44

🟢 ‘Even more orange’: Strategy buys 1,665 bitcoin for $143 million as total holdings reach 847,666 BTC — theblock — Score: +0.44

🟢 Tom Lee’s Bitmine tops 6 million ETH after buying another 17,362 ether — theblock — Score: +0.28

🟢 Vitalik Buterin maps Ethereum’s shift beyond a blockchain in sweeping 2030 vision — coindesk — Score: +0.25

⚠️ Senate is still a toss-up, but Democrats now have slight edge, prediction market traders think — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.15

Academic Footnote

Addy et al. (2024) — cointegration-based crypto pairs strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.