Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-29 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-29: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (8 bullish / 1 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on DOGE cut 0.338 (0.70 → 0.36).
• Shadow portfolio: $724 (-27.61%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 70/100; BTC dominance 58.6% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 29 days | Next CPI: in 14 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 8 BULL / 1 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.90 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.84 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.83 ✅ | BTC/BNB: r=0.81 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.81 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.80 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

DOGE/USDT (BEAR):

In a confirmed BEAR regime, ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are the standout performers with 7d Sharpe of 8.30 and positive pnl (+437.89), earning meaningful raises per rule 4 and regime alignment despite 44% win-rates offset by excellent risk-adjusted returns. rsi_macd is cut from its inflated 0.698 — it has a deeply negative 7d Sharpe (-3.19) and 35% win-rate, triggering rules 2-3; volume_spike is the worst performer (29% win, Sharpe -7.56, pnl -686.39) so it is pushed toward its floor per rules 2-3. Bollinger’s 7d Sharpe of 2.22 and positive pnl are genuinely strong for a mean-reversion strategy, but its dismal 24h metrics and the BEAR regime (band-walk risk) limit the raise; post_shock_reversal stays near current as a mean-reversion strategy in a trending regime with only modest 7d stats; tsmom is held near neutral under the low-sample guard (0 trades). Sentiment_strategy is nudged down from 0.70 given weak avg_composite (+0.05/+0.08) that conflicts with the BEAR regime price action, while correlation_strategy and macro_strategy have no active signals and stay within ±0.02 of current.

WIF/USDT (BULL):

post_shock_reversal is the clear standout with 7d win=43%, Sharpe=7.55, pnl=+1201 across 68 trades, earning a meaningful raise to 0.70 per rule 4; bollinger also posts a strong 7d (Sharpe=5.47, pnl=+691) despite ugly 24h numbers, so it holds near its current weight at 0.62 — notably this contradicts the BULL regime prior (rule 6 conflict noted) but the data wins. rsi_macd has persistent underperformance (7d win=32%, Sharpe=-5.30, pnl=-585) so it is cut hard per rules 2-3 from 0.765 to 0.55; volume_spike and ema_cross/walk_forward_ema are similarly penalised — volume_spike posts the worst metrics (7d win=29%, Sharpe=-7.94, pnl=-1039) and is cut to 0.10, while ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical 7d losses (win=30%, Sharpe=-6.29, pnl=-623) and are trimmed to 0.15/0.10 near the floor; tsmom has zero trades so rule 1 applies and it stays near neutral at 0.48; sentiment carries consistent 100% confluence across both windows with modest positive composite, supporting a slight hold at 0.60; correlation and macro have no signal data and are held at their current weights.

SUI/USDT (BULL):

The two standout performers are bollinger (7d 44% win, Sharpe 8.54, +1133 pnl) and volume_spike (7d 41% win, Sharpe 8.34, +1144 pnl), both earning large raises per rule 4 despite the BULL regime’s typical preference for momentum — the data wins over the prior here. ema_cross, walk_forward_ema, and tsmom are catastrophically losing money (7d Sharpe around -10, win-rates 20-23%, deeply negative pnl) triggering rule 2’s persistent underperformance cut to near-floor levels. rsi_macd also fails rules 2-3 (7d win 35%, Sharpe -1.21, negative pnl) so it is cut substantially from its inflated 0.781 current weight toward neutral; post_shock_reversal is trimmed for its negative 7d Sharpe and pnl. Sentiment holds moderate weight given 100% confluence across both windows but is nudged down slightly from its high current weight given the sparse two-source 24h coverage and very mild composite signal.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.08 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by FS Bancorp, Inc.”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 ‘Even more orange’: Strategy buys 1,665 bitcoin for $143 million as total holdings reach 847,666 BTC — theblock — Score: +0.66

🟢 Bitcoin ETFs turn positive for 2026 with $2.4 billion weekly inflow, their largest since October — theblock — Score: +0.49

🟢 Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive for 2026 after erasing $5.8 billion deficit — coindesk — Score: +0.30

🔴 THORChain rejects Bitget request to block hacker as $6 million moves to bitcoin — coindesk — Score: -0.27

⚠️ Senate is still a toss-up, but Democrats now have slight edge, prediction market traders think — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.16

Academic Footnote

Shen et al. (2021) — time-series momentum in cryptocurrency markets.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.