Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-28 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-28: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: tsmom on SUI cut 0.316 (0.59 → 0.28).
• Shadow portfolio: $724 (-27.61%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 73/100; BTC dominance 58.6% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 30 days | Next CPI: in 15 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.83 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.80 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.79 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.78 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.78 ✅ | SOL/BNB: r=0.77 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

SUI/USDT (BULL):

In a confirmed BULL regime, ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are both deeply negative (7d win 28%, Sharpe -4.81, pnl -392.84) — a clear data-over-regime conflict (rule 6) that drives cuts to 0.22; tsmom similarly failed (7d win 24%, Sharpe -6.12, pnl -507.25) despite being a momentum strategy in a bull market, so it is cut to 0.28 per rules 2-3. volume_spike is the standout performer (7d 45% win, Sharpe 14.69, pnl +2314.73) and earns a bump toward 0.75; rsi_macd has strong 24h metrics but a disappointing 7d win-rate of 43% so it is modestly trimmed from 0.648 to 0.58. Bollinger holds near neutral as its 7d metrics are positive but it is a mean-reversion strategy in a bull trend; post_shock_reversal is similarly capped slightly below current weight given the trend regime and its sub-40% 7d win-rate; sentiment is held near its current weight as confluence is perfect but coverage is modest (3 sources) and the composite signal is only weakly positive; correlation and macro are zero-trade non-price voters with no new information, held close to their current low weights.

AVAX/USDT (BULL):

In a confirmed BULL regime, rsi_macd and ema_cross (and the identical walk_forward_ema) earn maintained-but-trimmed weights: their 7d metrics are strongly positive (rsi_macd 45% win / +9.96 Sharpe / +1043 pnl; ema_cross and walk_forward_ema 44% win / +8.18 Sharpe / +574 pnl) yet their 24h performance is sharply negative across all three, so I pulled back from their very high current weights (~0.89) to 0.75 rather than a full rule-4 boost, respecting the 24h deterioration signal. Bollinger is a clear rule-2/3 casualty — 7d win-rate of 27% and a deeply negative Sharpe (-7.04) and pnl (-610) in a trending market where band-walk is the expected failure mode, so I cut it toward 0.18. Volume_spike also fails rules 2-3 on 7d (32% win, -2.46 Sharpe, -302 pnl), warranting a meaningful cut from 0.619 to 0.38; post_shock_reversal is a mean-reversion strategy with 7d win-rate of 33% and negative 7d Sharpe/pnl that conflicts with the BULL regime, so it is trimmed to 0.33; tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy have zero trades and are held near their current weights per rule 1, while sentiment is modestly reduced from 0.683 to 0.65 reflecting very mild positive composite with only adequate coverage.

WIF/USDT (BULL):

ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are cut hard toward 0.10 per rules 2-3: both share identical 7d metrics (28% win, -6.94 Sharpe, -688.95 pnl), a clear conflict with the BULL regime that the data overrides (rule 6). post_shock_reversal is the standout performer (49% win, 14.91 Sharpe, +2773 pnl 7d) and earns a raise to 0.72 despite being mean-reversion flavoured — the data wins over regime prior. bollinger similarly earns a raise to 0.72 on exceptional 7d Sharpe (11.08) and pnl (+1396), though both outlier Sharpes likely reflect low-volatility normalisation and are treated with some caution. rsi_macd is reduced from its inflated 0.794 to 0.65 because while Sharpe is positive, the 38% win rate on 56 trades is below the 55% threshold for a full boost; tsmom has zero trades on both windows so the low-sample guard (rule 1) keeps it near neutral at 0.50; volume_spike holds near current as its strong 24h Sharpe conflicts with negative 7d Sharpe and pnl; sentiment stays modestly above neutral on good coverage and 100% confluence; correlation and macro hold near current with no signal data to act on.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.06 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by FS Bancorp, Inc.”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Bitcoin ETFs turn positive for 2026 with $2.4 billion weekly inflow, their largest since October — theblock — Score: +0.49

🟢 Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive for 2026 after erasing $5.8 billion deficit — coindesk — Score: +0.30

🟢 Vitalik Buterin maps Ethereum’s shift beyond a blockchain in sweeping 2030 vision — coindesk — Score: +0.25

⚪ ARK Invest brings $1.3 billion venture fund onchain through Securitize — theblock — Score: +0.15

⚠️ Senate is still a toss-up, but Democrats now have slight edge, prediction market traders think — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.14

📈 System Architecture

The four-panel Bayesian fusion engine behind these daily decisions (shown Mondays). See Methodology.

Academic Footnote

Miralles-Quirós (2022) — post-shock reversals in digital assets.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.