Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-26 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-26: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: ema_cross on ETH cut 0.271 (0.79 → 0.52).
• Shadow portfolio: $723 (-27.71%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 72/100; BTC dominance 58.6% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 32 days | Next CPI: in 17 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): ETH/SOL: r=0.85 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.84 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.83 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.79 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.79 ✅ | BTC/BNB: r=0.76 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

ETH/USDT (BULL):

In a BULL regime, momentum strategies are theoretically favoured, but ema_cross contradicts the prior badly (7d win 29%, near-zero pnl, catastrophic 24h Sharpe of -18.80), so rule 6 fires and I cut it significantly from 0.791 to 0.55 — still above neutral given the regime but no longer overweighted on broken metrics. rsi_macd and volume_spike both show persistent underperformance (7d win 20% and 30% respectively, both with negative 7d Sharpe and negative pnl), triggering rules 2-3 for material cuts. Bollinger is the data surprise: despite being a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime, its 7d Sharpe of 12.84 and +622 pnl on 37 trades is overwhelming, so rule 4 overrides the regime prior and I raise it; tsmom earns a boost (43% win, Sharpe 4.67, +203 pnl on 14 trades) as the momentum standard-bearer, and post_shock_reversal and walk_forward_ema both show positive 7d pnl and Sharpe warranting modest raises, while sentiment gets a small lift on 100% confluence across 3 sources, and correlation_strategy and macro_strategy hold near current weights given zero signal activity.

WIF/USDT (BULL):

tsmom is the standout performer (7d 52% win, Sharpe 13.47, +1351 pnl) and earns a raise toward 0.80 per rule 4 and BULL regime alignment; bollinger also posts exceptional 7d metrics (45% win, Sharpe 10.03, +1098 pnl) and is raised despite being a mean-reversion strategy — the data overrides the regime prior per rule 6. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema both show deeply negative 7d Sharpe and pnl with sub-30% win rates, triggering rules 2-3 cuts toward 0.20-0.22 — a clear conflict with the BULL prior where the data wins. volume_spike similarly earns a hard cut (30% win, Sharpe -2.59, -426 pnl on 80 trades — large sample, unambiguous underperformance); rsi_macd has a sub-40% 7d win rate despite a positive Sharpe, so it is trimmed modestly; post_shock_reversal is held near current given mixed signals; sentiment is nudged up slightly on strong confluence; correlation and macro have no active signals and stay near their current low weights.

BTC/USDT (BULL):

tsmom is the dominant signal: 52% win-rate and a Sharpe of 17.01 over 29 trades earns a strong raise toward the cap, fully supported by the BULL regime momentum prior. rsi_macd is cut hard (25% win, -2.68 Sharpe, -41.51 pnl over 12 trades) — persistent underperformance triggers rule 2/3 despite the BULL regime; ema_cross similarly has a negative 7d Sharpe and sub-35% win-rate so it is reduced despite regime alignment, though its 32-trade sample and momentum character keep it above neutral. volume_spike is cut sharply: the 64-trade 7d window shows -2.97 Sharpe and -98.81 pnl, overriding the positive 24h noise per the conflict rule. bollinger’s 7d positive Sharpe and pnl partially redeem it but its band-walk weakness in a BULL trend keeps it below neutral; walk_forward_ema earns a modest raise on borderline positive 7d metrics and volatility-targeting design. sentiment_strategy has 3-source coverage and 100% confluence over both windows with mildly positive composite, justifying a maintained elevated weight; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both have zero trades/signals in both windows, so they are held near their current low weights with only marginal decay toward 0.50 per the no-data guidance.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.03 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by FS Bancorp, Inc.”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 4 sources monitored today:

🟢 JPMorgan says bitcoin crossing $85,000 production cost could ease miner selling pressure — theblock — Score: +0.42

🟢 Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive for 2026 after erasing $5.8 billion deficit — coindesk — Score: +0.25

⚠️ How besieged billionaires are turning the tables on litigious shareholders — ft_markets — Score: -0.23

⚪ ARK Invest brings $1.3 billion venture fund onchain through Securitize — theblock — Score: +0.15

⚠️ Senate is still a toss-up, but Democrats now have slight edge, prediction market traders think — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.11

Academic Footnote

Care & Cumming (2024) — algorithmic trading and crypto market quality.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.