Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-25 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-25: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on SUI raised 0.329 (0.31 → 0.64).
• Shadow portfolio: $728 (-27.19%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 72/100; BTC dominance 58.9% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.0% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 33 days | Next CPI: in 18 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): ETH/SOL: r=0.83 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.83 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.80 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.77 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.77 ✅ | BTC/BNB: r=0.74 ✅

Divergence alerts (|z| > 1.5):

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

SUI/USDT (BULL):

ema_cross is cut sharply (7d win=24%, Sharpe=-6.58, pnl=-443.92) per rules 2-3 despite the BULL regime — a clear data-over-prior conflict (rule 6); walk_forward_ema similarly posts a negative 7d Sharpe (-1.99) and negative pnl (-175.73) so it is reduced from 0.511 toward 0.40 per rule 3. bollinger remains elevated given its strong 7d metrics (59% win, Sharpe=14.41, +1414 pnl) even though mean-reversion is slightly disfavoured in BULL — the data dominates. rsi_macd and tsmom are held near neutral (rsi_macd has only 4 7d trades, triggering rule 1; tsmom has adequate trades but a sub-35% win-rate so it is nudged down from its elevated 0.606 current). sentiment_strategy retains a solid weight on near-perfect confluence and 3-source coverage but is trimmed slightly from its high 0.683 given the near-neutral composite (+0.06). correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero activity across all windows and are held close to their current weights per rule 1.

BNB/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd is cut hard (7d win 27%, Sharpe -4.64, negative pnl) per rules 2-3 — a clear conflict with the BULL regime where momentum should thrive, so data wins over the prior. volume_spike and tsmom both show 7d win-rates near 30-32% with negative Sharpe and negative pnl, warranting meaningful reductions per rules 2-3. bollinger is paradoxically the strongest 7d performer (44% win, Sharpe 9.51, +387 pnl) despite the BULL regime band-walk risk, so it earns a modest lift per rule 4 tempered by the regime conflict flag; ema_cross and walk_forward_ema have mediocre 7d win-rates (36-40%) with positive Sharpe and pnl so they hold near current with only a small downward nudge, while post_shock_reversal’s positive 7d pnl keeps it near its current weight. Sentiment coverage is adequate (3 sources, 67% confluence) but composite is nearly flat (+0.06), so it is nudged only slightly below its elevated current weight; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both show zero trades on all windows and are held within 0.05 of their current weights per rule 1.

AVAX/USDT (BULL):

In a confirmed BULL regime, momentum strategies ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are nudged down slightly from their elevated current weights because 7d win-rates of 44% are below 50% and do not meet rule-4 thresholds, though positive Sharpe and pnl keep them above neutral; tsmom similarly stays elevated (regime-aligned momentum family, 48% win, strong Sharpe 8.60, sufficient 7d trades) but trimmed modestly from 0.686. Volume_spike is cut from 0.537 due to a severely negative 24h Sharpe (-14.11) and losing 24h pnl, signalling recent breakdown in signal quality despite a positive 7d — rule 3 conflict demands a reduction. Bollinger is lightly reduced below its current weight as a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL trend with a sub-50% 7d win-rate (42%); sentiment_strategy is trimmed from its high 0.716 toward a still-elevated 0.65 reflecting good 3-source coverage and 100% confluence but near-neutral composite (+0.06) that does not strongly confirm the bull move; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero trades/signals across all windows and are held near their current weights per the no-signal hold-steady principle.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): -0.00 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: XRP/USDT at +0.75 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Onchain prediction market Trueo migrates to Ethereum; Vitalik Buterin welcomes ‘ethical’ market contender — theblock — Score: +0.88

🟢 JPMorgan says bitcoin crossing $85,000 production cost could ease miner selling pressure — theblock — Score: +0.30

🔴 Solana starts testing upgrade that could cut finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds — coindesk — Score: -0.27

⚠️ How besieged billionaires are turning the tables on litigious shareholders — ft_markets — Score: -0.23

🟢 Dogecoin down 8%, bitcoin under $84,000 as Treasury yields hit highest level since 2007 — coindesk — Score: +0.20

Academic Footnote

Miralles-Quirós (2022) — post-shock reversals in digital assets.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.