Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-24 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-24: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (8 bullish / 1 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on AVAX cut 0.357 (0.79 → 0.43).
• Shadow portfolio: $726 (-27.38%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 73/100; BTC dominance 59.2% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.0% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 34 days | Next CPI: in 19 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 8 BULL / 1 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): ETH/SOL: r=0.82 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.81 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.78 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.76 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.75 ✅ | SOL/BNB: r=0.72 ✅

Divergence alerts (|z| > 1.5):

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

AVAX/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd is cut sharply from 0.787: its 7d win-rate of 30% barely clears the rule-2 threshold, its 7d Sharpe is -1.54 (rule 3), and its 24h metrics are catastrophic — conflict rule fires because it is losing money in a BULL regime, so trust the data over the regime prior. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical 7d metrics (41% win, Sharpe 5.98, +403 pnl) which are positive risk-adjusted but sub-55% win-rate, so a moderate raise is warranted with BULL regime alignment, while the disastrous 24h window prevents a full rule-4 boost; both are nudged to 0.72. volume_spike earns a strong raise on 102 7d trades, Sharpe 11.74, and +1693 pnl despite a weak win-rate, reflecting genuine edge in this regime. bollinger stays near current as its 7d Sharpe is strong (3.64) but it is a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime prone to band-walks, so no regime boost is applied. tsmom rises modestly on positive 7d Sharpe (8.60) and pnl with zero 24h trades limiting confidence; post_shock_reversal gets a small lift on its positive 7d pnl but is a mean-reversion vehicle counter to the BULL prior. sentiment_strategy is trimmed slightly from 0.715 given weak near-neutral composite (+0.07) despite full confluence, keeping it informative but not dominant. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero trades across all windows — no signal to evaluate — so they are held near their current weights per the thin-data guard.

SUI/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd and ema_cross are cut hard — both show 7d win-rates below 30% with deeply negative Sharpes and negative pnl, firing rules 2 and 3 despite the BULL regime (conflict rule 6 overrides the regime prior for these two). bollinger is the standout performer with 55% win-rate, extraordinary 7d Sharpe of 10.65, and +929 pnl, earning a large raise under rule 4 despite being a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime — the data clearly wins. volume_spike and tsmom have positive 7d pnl and Sharpe but 24h performance is dismal, so modest raises are warranted; walk_forward_ema earns a small bump to near-neutral on its positive 7d Sharpe of 1.32 despite the brutal 24h; post_shock_reversal stays near its already-low weight given persistent losses; sentiment_strategy gets a mild raise on full 3-source coverage and 100% confluence; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy remain near their current low weights with zero trades reported.

BNB/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd and tsmom are both persistent underperformers on 7d (33% and 30% win-rate, negative Sharpe of -3.78 and -2.22, negative pnl) and are cut sharply per rules 2-3 despite the BULL regime — data overrides the momentum prior (rule 6). ema_cross also has a sub-35% 7d win-rate with a positive Sharpe inflated by thin profitability, warranting a reduction; walk_forward_ema stays near its current low weight given a near-zero 7d Sharpe and marginally negative pnl. Bollinger is the standout paradox in a BULL regime — 48% win, Sharpe 11.40, +453 pnl on 44 trades — so rule 4 raises it materially despite the anti-regime signal; post_shock_reversal similarly shows a strong 7d Sharpe (5.27) and positive pnl despite a weak 24h, earning a modest raise to 0.55. Sentiment coverage is moderate (3 sources, 67% confluence, mildly positive composite) warranting a slight reduction from its elevated current weight; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both show zero activity across all windows and are held near their current weights per the thin-data guard.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.04 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: XRP/USDT at +0.71 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Onchain prediction market Trueo migrates to Ethereum; Vitalik Buterin welcomes ‘ethical’ market contender — theblock — Score: +0.88

🟢 Spot bitcoin ETFs attract nearly $1 billion in largest daily inflow in 11 months — theblock — Score: +0.30

🔴 Solana starts testing upgrade that could cut finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds — coindesk — Score: -0.27

🔴 Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows — coindesk — Score: -0.25

⚠️ ‘Stop the bleeding’: Republicans tell Trump to ban US diesel exports — ft_markets — Score: -0.17

Academic Footnote

Borgards (2021) — momentum and the cross-section of crypto returns.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.