Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-23 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-23: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on WIF raised 0.341 (0.29 → 0.63).
• Shadow portfolio: $726 (-27.38%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 77/100; BTC dominance 59.2% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.8% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 35 days | Next CPI: in 20 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.84 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.84 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.81 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.79 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.75 ✅ | BTC/BNB: r=0.74 ✅

Divergence alerts (|z| > 1.5):

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

WIF/USDT (BULL):

ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are catastrophically bad (7d win rates of 10% and 12%, Sharpe of -10.47 and -11.91, deeply negative pnl), triggering rule 2 hard cuts to the floor despite the BULL regime — a clear data-beats-regime conflict per rule 6. tsmom is the standout performer (7d 57% win, Sharpe 20.50, +2438 pnl) and is a momentum strategy in a confirmed BULL, earning a large raise to 0.85 per rules 4 and 5. volume_spike’s 24h is ugly but the 7d is solidly positive (Sharpe 5.05, +601 pnl, 93 trades), so I hold it modestly above neutral; bollinger gets cut per rules 2-3 (26% 7d win, negative Sharpe) as the band-walk casualty expected in a BULL. rsi_macd has only 2 trades on 7d so rule 1 applies, keeping it near its current low weight with minimal movement; sentiment stays near current as coverage is limited to 2 sources with near-neutral composite, while correlation and macro show zero activity and are held at their current weights.

SUI/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd has only 1 trade on 7d (rule 1 thin-data guard), so it stays near its current 0.30 with a minimal nudge upward. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema share identical 7d metrics (40% win, 7.59 Sharpe, +526 pnl) but both posted catastrophic 24h results (0% win, Sharpe -45.78); the 7d window dominates so I raise them modestly from their current levels, but the severe 24h crash prevents a larger move — walk_forward_ema gets a slightly higher weight than ema_cross given its volatility-targeting design suits the BULL regime better. volume_spike has a strong 7d pnl (+1568) but a poor 7d win-rate of 35% with a brutal 24h session, so I trim it slightly from its elevated current weight while keeping it above neutral given the positive regime alignment. tsmom’s 7d win-rate of 34% is below 40% with a modest Sharpe and a deeply negative 24h, so it is cut below neutral. post_shock_reversal is a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime with a 32% 7d win-rate and near-zero pnl, triggering both the regime-conflict and near-rule-2 cuts. sentiment_strategy has consistent 100% confluence over both windows with positive composite scores, justifying a modest hold near current weight. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero trades/signals on both windows, so they are held near their current weights with no meaningful move.

BTC/USDT (BULL):

tsmom is the dominant signal: 7d win-rate 61%, Sharpe 26.49, pnl +1164 — a textbook rule-4 raise, nudged to the 0.95 cap’s neighbourhood but held at 0.90 given the smoothness constraint and zero 24h trades. volume_spike earns a strong lift on its 7d Sharpe of 8.07 and pnl of +321 despite a modest win-rate. rsi_macd is cut hard — 7d win-rate 34% with a deeply negative Sharpe (-1.85) and negative pnl fires rules 2-3; this is a direct conflict with the BULL regime so the data wins (rule 6). ema_cross has a positive 7d Sharpe (1.81) and pnl (+52.78) keeping it modestly above neutral with a BULL-regime nudge, but its ugly 24h metrics prevent a larger raise; bollinger gets a mild lift on a positive 7d Sharpe and pnl despite the BULL headwind; post_shock_reversal and walk_forward_ema are trimmed slightly — post_shock is a mean-reversion strategy in a trending market with sub-50% win-rate, while walk_forward_ema’s negative 24h Sharpe partially offsets its positive 7d; sentiment_strategy stays near current on consistent 100% confluence and 3-source coverage with mildly bullish composite, a small trim from an elevated current weight; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero trades/signals across all windows so they are held within ±0.05 of their current weights per rule 1.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.03 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: XRP/USDT at +0.71 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 4 sources monitored today:

🟢 Onchain prediction market Trueo migrates to Ethereum; Vitalik Buterin welcomes ‘ethical’ market contender — theblock — Score: +0.48

🟢 JPMorgan says bitcoin could get more support than gold if ETF hedging eases — theblock — Score: +0.35

⚠️ ‘Stop the bleeding’: Republicans tell Trump to ban US diesel exports — ft_markets — Score: -0.22

⚠️ Senate is still a toss-up, but Democrats now have slight edge, prediction market traders think — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.16

⚪ Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows — coindesk — Score: -0.12

Academic Footnote

Wen et al. (2022) — overreaction and short-term reversal in crypto.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.