Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-22 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-22: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (9 bullish / 0 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: walk_forward_ema on DOGE raised 0.442 (0.13 → 0.57).
• Shadow portfolio: $722 (-27.77%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 77/100; BTC dominance 59.2% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 8.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 36 days | Next CPI: in 21 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 9 BULL / 0 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): ETH/SOL: r=0.85 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.83 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.83 ✅ | SOL/DOGE: r=0.83 ✅ | ETH/DOGE: r=0.81 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.79 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

DOGE/USDT (BULL):

tsmom is the standout performer with 7d win-rate 59%, Sharpe 14.63, and +1036 pnl — well above rule-4 thresholds — so it earns the largest raise, further supported by BULL regime alignment for momentum strategies. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema have only 3 trades on 7d (rule 1 low-sample guard), so gains are modest despite strong metrics; ema_cross gets a small BULL-regime nudge while walk_forward_ema moves up from its very low current base. volume_spike fires rule 2 (7d win-rate 30%, negative Sharpe -1.63, negative pnl) and is cut materially; post_shock_reversal shows positive 7d pnl but a weak 35% win-rate so it is trimmed slightly as a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime. sentiment_strategy has 100% confluence across 3 sources on both windows with a mildly positive composite, so it is held near its current elevated weight with a minor haircut for the near-neutral avg_composite; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy report zero activity on both windows and are held within ±0.02 of current per rule 1.

SUI/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades on both windows (rule 1 low-sample guard), so they stay within +/-0.05 of their current weights near 0.26. ema_cross earns a modest lift to 0.37 (7d 75% win, Sharpe 10.29, positive pnl) supported by BULL regime alignment, while walk_forward_ema holds near its current 0.67-0.68 given strong 7d Sharpe of 15.36 and consistent pnl despite a sub-55% win rate, rewarded as a volatility-targeting momentum strategy in a confirmed BULL. volume_spike is cut from 0.61 to 0.52 because despite a huge Sharpe the 7d win rate is only 33%, triggering rule 2 concern (persistent sub-50% win in a high-trade sample of 109), though positive pnl prevents a deeper cut; bollinger gets a small bump to 0.34 on solid 7d metrics (75% win, Sharpe 8.79) even though BULL regime is headwind. sentiment_strategy stays near 0.62 given consistent 100% confluence but only 2 sources and a near-neutral composite signal, warranting no significant move from its current level.

SOL/USDT (BULL):

In this confirmed BULL regime, volume_spike earns the largest raise (7d 48% win, Sharpe 13.21, +1043 pnl — rule 4 plus regime alignment) and ema_cross holds near its current high weight on strong 7d Sharpe of 3.94 and positive pnl; walk_forward_ema similarly stays elevated on solid 7d Sharpe 5.02 and positive pnl. rsi_macd is cut meaningfully — its 7d win-rate of 28% triggers rule 2 and a deeply negative 7d Sharpe of -6.81 compounds this per rule 3, overriding the 24h noise; bollinger is cut further toward its floor given 7d win-rate of 33% and negative Sharpe in a BULL trend where band-walking is the dominant risk. tsmom gets a modest lift from its 7d positive Sharpe and pnl but falls short of rule 4’s full boost (7d trades=15, borderline sample, 53% win); post_shock_reversal is held near current — strong 7d Sharpe and pnl are encouraging but mean-reversion is disfavoured in BULL, and the 24h negative Sharpe flags recent deterioration. Sentiment stays elevated on 100% confluence and full source coverage across both windows; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero trades/signals across all windows and are held near their current weights per the no-signal guidance.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +1.00 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.04 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: WIF/USDT at +1.00 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🔴 Ethereum confirms Glamsterdam dates, but warns ‘fake’ builders could stall the chain — coindesk — Score: -0.79

🟢 Bitcoin ETFs eke out positive week with $433 million Friday inflow as ether funds snap four-week inflow streak — theblock — Score: +0.56

🟢 JPMorgan says bitcoin could get more support than gold if ETF hedging eases — theblock — Score: +0.51

🟢 Ripple says asset managers are preparing for XRP Ledger’s next payments upgrade — coindesk — Score: +0.36

⚠️ TotalEnergies faces fresh scrutiny over response to Mozambique attack — ft_markets — Score: -0.17

Academic Footnote

Addy et al. (2024) — cointegration-based crypto pairs strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.