Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-19 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-19: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (7 bullish / 1 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: walk_forward_ema on XRP raised 0.409 (0.18 → 0.59).
• Shadow portfolio: $722 (-27.76%), 0 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 74/100; BTC dominance 58.8% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.2% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 39 days | Next CPI: in 24 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 7 BULL / 1 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): DOGE/SUI: r=0.85 ✅ | SOL/DOGE: r=0.85 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.85 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.84 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.82 ✅ | SUI/AVAX: r=0.81 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

XRP/USDT (BULL):

In the confirmed BULL regime, ema_cross earns a meaningful raise (58% win, Sharpe 9.69, +228 pnl over 12 7d trades — rule 4 plus regime alignment), and tsmom similarly gets a bump (50% win, Sharpe 10.21, +549 pnl over 22 trades, momentum-family regime fit). volume_spike is cut despite positive pnl because its 7d win-rate of 31% nearly triggers rule 2 (persistent underperformance), conflicting with the BULL regime prior. post_shock_reversal shows impressive Sharpe and pnl but is a mean-reversion strategy running counter to the BULL regime (rule 6 conflict), so it is nudged down modestly from 0.35 to 0.42 — a small raise on strong data but held below neutral to respect regime conflict; sentiment_strategy holds near its current high weight given 100% 7d confluence across 3 sources; rsi_macd, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades and are held at their current weights per rule 1; bollinger gets a token lift on thin 7d data (4 trades, rule 1 guard) despite strong short-window metrics.

AVAX/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd and walk_forward_ema have zero trades in both windows so rule 1 applies — weights held near current. bollinger has only 1 trade with a deeply negative Sharpe (-7.22) and negative pnl in a BULL regime where band-walk risk is high, so a small reduction per rules 3 and 5 conflict is warranted, capped tightly given thin data. ema_cross has only 1 trade (7d) so remains near current with a marginal BULL-regime nudge upward. volume_spike shows 75 trades on 7d but win-rate of only 29% (rule 2 territory), though pnl is positive and Sharpe is positive, signalling a few large winners skewing results — a cautious modest cut from 0.195 to 0.22 balances the low win-rate against positive risk-adjusted returns. tsmom has solid 7d Sharpe (8.94) and positive pnl with adequate sample (17 trades), earning a small hold near its current elevated weight with BULL-regime support for momentum; post_shock_reversal conflicts with the BULL regime (mean-reversion empirical) but has reasonable recent metrics, so held near current with a marginal trim. sentiment_strategy shows 3 sources, 100% confluence both windows, mild positive composite — strong coverage justifies a modest raise to 0.67.

BTC/USDT (BULL):

tsmom is the standout performer with 73% 7d win-rate, Sharpe 20.82, and +578 pnl — a clear rule-4 raise toward the 0.95 cap, also perfectly aligned with the BULL regime momentum prior. rsi_macd has a healthy 7d Sharpe of 2.65 and positive pnl but only 43% win-rate, so a modest lift rather than a full rule-4 boost; ema_cross earns a small regime-alignment nudge despite a weak 39% 7d win-rate because its 7d Sharpe is positive and it fits the BULL regime, but the low win-rate caps enthusiasm. bollinger and post_shock_reversal are both mean-reversion strategies that face a BULL headwind per rule 5 and regime-conflict rule 6, and their 7d win-rates (49% and 41%) offer no data-driven reason to override the regime penalty; walk_forward_ema has a sub-threshold 7d Sharpe of 0.84 and only 35% win-rate so it earns no boost despite the BULL regime. sentiment_strategy receives a modest raise from its current 0.642 given perfect 7d confluence (100%) across 3 sources with a consistently positive composite, while correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both report zero activity on all windows and are held near their current weights per the thin-data guard.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.11 (bullish) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.50 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 4 sources monitored today:

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.75

🟢 JPMorgan says bitcoin could get more support than gold if ETF hedging eases — theblock — Score: +0.35

⚠️ Europe can attract more stock trading with fewer, better markets — ft_markets — Score: +0.28

🔴 Ethereum confirms Glamsterdam dates, but warns ‘fake’ builders could stall the chain — coindesk — Score: -0.26

⚠️ Yen sinks after BoJ raises rates to highest since 1995 — ft_markets — Score: +0.24

Academic Footnote

Tzouvanas et al. (2020) — moving-average trading rules for Bitcoin.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.