Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-17 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-17: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (4 bullish / 4 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: volume_spike on WIF cut 0.267 (0.48 → 0.21).
• Shadow portfolio: $718 (-28.23%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 63/100; BTC dominance 59.0% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 41 days | Next CPI: in 26 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is mixed: 4 BULL / 4 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): SOL/DOGE: r=0.91 ✅ | DOGE/SUI: r=0.91 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.88 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.88 ✅ | SUI/AVAX: r=0.88 ✅ | DOGE/AVAX: r=0.87 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

WIF/USDT (BEAR):

volume_spike is the clearest action item: 68 trades over 7d with only 18% win-rate, -5.08 Sharpe, and -382 pnl triggers rule 2/3 hard — cut sharply toward the floor. post_shock_reversal has only 2 trades (rule 1 low-sample guard) but both 0% win-rate and a catastrophic -5.84 Sharpe with -105 pnl justifies cutting to near-floor despite thin data. bollinger has 1 trade with a -3.33 Sharpe and is a mean-reversion strategy in a BEAR regime facing band-walk risk, so it is reduced per rule 3 and regime conflict; rsi_macd and ema_cross have zero trades so are held within +/-0.05 of current under rule 1, with a minor BEAR-regime nudge toward momentum. tsmom has thin data (3 trades) but positive Sharpe and pnl and is momentum-aligned with BEAR, so it holds near current; walk_forward_ema has 7 trades with negative Sharpe so is lightly trimmed per rule 3. Sentiment shows 100% 7d confluence on 2 sources with a mildly positive composite, earning a small lift; correlation and macro have no signals and are held at current.

ETH/USDT (BULL):

In this confirmed BULL regime, rsi_macd is cut from 0.511 toward 0.35 because both windows show ~32% win-rate and negative Sharpe/pnl (rules 2-3 override the regime-momentum prior). Bollinger is held near its floor at 0.10: the 24h Sharpe spike is noise against a devastating 7d Sharpe of -7.76 and -224 pnl (rule 3, band-walk in a trend). ema_cross is trimmed slightly from 0.710 to 0.60 because the 24h window is badly negative (-7.54 Sharpe, -42 pnl) conflicting with the positive 7d, warranting modest caution while still respecting the regime-momentum alignment. tsmom earns a small lift to 0.72 on a strong 7d Sharpe of 3.51 and +129 pnl despite zero 24h trades (rule 4, regime-aligned momentum); post_shock_reversal is nudged up to 0.35 acknowledging its impressive Sharpe and pnl but recognising mean-reversion is unfavoured in a BULL trend; sentiment_strategy gets a slight raise to 0.75 on 100% 7d confluence and consistent coverage; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both had zero trades across all windows so they stay near their current weights per rule 1.

BNB/USDT (BULL):

volume_spike has a catastrophic 7d win-rate of 29% with negative Sharpe (-1.97) and negative pnl (-86.08), so it is held near its floor (0.10) per rules 2-3 despite strong 24h optics — the weekly data wins. walk_forward_ema shows persistent underperformance across both windows (7d win 27%, Sharpe -4.19, pnl -102.54), triggering rule 2-3 cuts toward 0.20. rsi_macd and tsmom each have 7d win-rates below 55% and modest Sharpe, but positive pnl and BULL-regime alignment justify holding them near current rather than cutting; ema_cross is similarly weak on 7d (37% win, Sharpe 0.48) so it is trimmed slightly. bollinger is penalised by BULL band-walk risk and sub-50% 7d win-rate keeping it low, while post_shock_reversal earns a small hold given its positive 7d pnl despite the low win-rate. sentiment_strategy shows 3-source coverage with improving 7d confluence (67%) and mild positive composite, supporting a modest hold near current; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy report zero activity so they are held at their current weights per the no-data-hold principle.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.00 (neutral crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.09 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.66 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.75

🟢 Ether, solana, XRP likely to gain if Clarity Act progresses — coindesk — Score: +0.73

🟢 Tonkeeper rebrands as Keeper with support for 7 networks, including Bitcoin and Ethereum — theblock — Score: +0.63

⚪ Bitcoin gives back Monday’s gain as Clarity Act odds fade on Polymarket — coindesk — Score: +0.16

⚠️ Senate is still a toss-up, but Democrats now have slight edge, prediction market traders think — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.15

Academic Footnote

Tzouvanas et al. (2020) — moving-average trading rules for Bitcoin.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.