Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-16 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-16: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (4 bullish / 4 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: ema_cross on XRP cut 0.353 (0.71 → 0.36).
• Shadow portfolio: $724 (-27.60%), 2 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 62/100; BTC dominance 59.0% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.9% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 0 days | Next CPI: in 27 days | position-size modifier 0.60×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is mixed: 4 BULL / 4 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): SOL/DOGE: r=0.91 ✅ | DOGE/SUI: r=0.91 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.90 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.89 ✅ | SUI/AVAX: r=0.88 ✅ | SOL/SUI: r=0.88 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

XRP/USDT (BEAR):

tsmom is the clear standout with 7d win-rate 48%, Sharpe 8.72, and +478 pnl, earning a strong raise toward 0.80 per rule 4; it is also a momentum strategy which aligns with the BEAR regime. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema both show 7d win-rates of 28% with negative Sharpe and negative pnl, triggering rules 2-3 for cuts, but they retain modest weight given the BEAR regime momentum alignment and the smoothness cap. volume_spike has 7d win-rate 30% and negative Sharpe (-0.59), so it is reduced; bollinger has only 3 trades on 7d (rule 1 thin-data guard) but also carries a catastrophic Sharpe of -6.17, so it is cut to the floor at 0.05. rsi_macd and correlation_strategy/macro_strategy have zero trades (rule 1), so they are held near current; sentiment_strategy shows strong 3-source coverage with 100% confluence and a consistent mild-bullish composite, slightly contrarian to the BEAR regime but reliable, so it is nudged modestly down from 0.768 to 0.72.

BTC/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd and correlation_strategy/macro_strategy all have zero trades on both windows so rule 1 applies — weights held near current with no large moves. ema_cross is cut from 0.386 toward 0.20 because its 7d win-rate of 29% and Sharpe of -4.71 trigger rules 2-3 (persistent underperformance plus negative risk-adjusted return) despite the BULL regime — data overrides the regime prior (rule 6). post_shock_reversal is a mean-reversion strategy that is catastrophically underperforming in a BULL trend (27% win, -4.21 Sharpe, -176 pnl on 67 trades), triggering rules 2-3 and the conflict rule, so it is cut toward 0.15. walk_forward_ema similarly shows 28% win and -2.52 Sharpe over 18 trades, warranting a meaningful reduction from 0.709 to 0.40 per rules 2-3. bollinger is trimmed slightly from 0.561 to 0.52 as it has positive pnl and strong Sharpe but a sub-50% win-rate in a BULL regime where band-walk risk exists. volume_spike had a deeply negative 24h Sharpe (-27.95) but a positive 7d Sharpe of 1.36 with modest positive pnl, so it is modestly reduced from 0.533. tsmom is a momentum strategy with positive 7d Sharpe and pnl on adequate sample — it earns a small BULL-regime nudge up from 0.525 to 0.50 (effectively held, bounded by thin-data caution at 21 trades). sentiment_strategy has 3-source coverage with 100% 24h confluence and mildly positive composite, so it is held near current with a small trim reflecting the weaker 7d confluence of 67%.

BNB/USDT (BULL):

volume_spike is the clearest cut: 7d win-rate 18% with Sharpe -15.45 and pnl -586.89 triggers rules 2-3 hard, pulling it to the floor near 0.10; bollinger likewise posts 27% win-rate, Sharpe -10.75, pnl -307.30 in a BULL regime where band-walks dominate, so it stays near its already-low current weight at 0.10. rsi_macd has a troubling 7d win-rate of only 31% and negative Sharpe (-1.44) despite a flashy 24h Sharpe, so I cut it below its current 0.628 per rules 2-3, though the BULL regime prevents a deeper slash; ema_cross and tsmom are the two momentum strategies with positive 7d Sharpe and pnl (ema_cross 0.74 / +16, tsmom 2.33 / +54) so both are nudged up — tsmom most aggressively as it clears rule 4 thresholds and is regime-aligned. post_shock_reversal has 7d win-rate 28% and Sharpe -5.70 so it is cut meaningfully; walk_forward_ema has 7d win-rate 30% and Sharpe -1.71 so it is reduced from 0.635 per rule 3 but kept above post_shock_reversal given its momentum family alignment with BULL. sentiment_strategy shows consistent 3-source coverage with 67% confluence and mildly positive composite, warranting a modest hold near its current weight with a small reduction from 0.685 reflecting only average-quality confluence. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both have zero trades across all windows, so per the thin-data guard they stay within a trivial range of their current 0.263.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.00 (neutral crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.08 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.66 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.75

🟢 Tonkeeper rebrands as Keeper with support for 7 networks, including Bitcoin and Ethereum — theblock — Score: +0.51

🟢 DeFi Development Corp expands Solana treasury to 2.39 million SOL, sets up $300 million CHAD ATM — theblock — Score: +0.46

🟢 Bitcoin slips to $77,800 as Senate Clarity Act vote nears and oil prices climb — coindesk — Score: +0.40

🟢 Bitcoin gives back Monday’s gain as Clarity Act odds fade on Polymarket — coindesk — Score: +0.38

Academic Footnote

Addy et al. (2024) — cointegration-based crypto pairs strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.