Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-11 — BEAR regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-11: BEAR regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BEAR (4 bullish / 5 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: ema_cross on BTC cut 0.331 (0.71 → 0.38).
• Shadow portfolio: $731 (-26.93%), 2 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 68/100; BTC dominance 59.0% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.7% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 5 days | Next CPI: in 0 days | position-size modifier 0.60×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bearish: 4 BULL / 5 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.94 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.88 ✅ | ETH/XRP: r=0.88 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.87 ✅ | BTC/XRP: r=0.86 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.84 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

BTC/USDT (BULL):

Nearly every price-based strategy is deeply underwater on 7d with negative Sharpes and sub-30% win rates, so rules 2-3 dominate: rsi_macd (20% win, -2.71 Sharpe) and volume_spike (29% win, -3.42 Sharpe) are cut hard toward 0.15-0.18; ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are also losing badly (-3.23 and -1.80 Sharpe) but currently carry very high weights (0.708 and 0.674), so I cut both substantially to ~0.38 — regime alignment (BULL) prevents a deeper cut but the conflict rule (rule 6) still forces a significant reduction given negative pnl in a nominally favourable regime. Bollinger is the lone positive-pnl strategy on 7d (+250, 9.16 Sharpe) but its 38% win rate and the BULL regime cap the raise; it moves modestly to 0.48. Sentiment_strategy shows good coverage (3 sources), perfect 7d confluence (100%), and a mildly positive composite, justifying a slight trim from its high 0.709 to 0.68; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy both show zero activity and are held near current weights per the thin-data guard.

SOL/USDT (BULL):

volume_spike is the standout performer with 7d win=44%, Sharpe=8.38, pnl=+369 and earns the largest raise per rule 4; rsi_macd has solid 7d Sharpe (1.54) and positive pnl despite a brutal 24h, so it gets a modest trim rather than a cut, staying near neutral with a small BULL-regime nudge. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema are both deeply negative on 7d (Sharpe -5.78 and -8.43, pnl -230 and -322) — a clear rule 2/3 conflict with the BULL regime so data wins and both are cut toward 0.13-0.18; post_shock_reversal similarly shows 7d win=31% with negative Sharpe and pnl, contradicting its mean-reversion profile in a BULL trend, so it is cut to 0.13. tsmom has only 1 trade on 7d (rule 1 low-sample guard) so it holds near current weight. sentiment_strategy retains a high weight on strong confluence (100%) and 3-source coverage with consistent mild-positive composite. correlation_strategy and macro_strategy report zero activity and hold near their current weights with no basis to move them.

WIF/USDT (BEAR):

rsi_macd, ema_cross, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero 7d trades so rule 1 keeps them within ±0.05 of current. bollinger has 7 trades but a terrible 7d win-rate (29%) and deeply negative Sharpe (-2.35) in a BEAR regime where band-walks are expected, so it is cut per rules 2-3. volume_spike has a large 7d sample (77 trades) with a positive Sharpe (6.51) and solid pnl (+578), but the catastrophic 24h session (10% win, Sharpe -25.82, -257 pnl) signals recent deterioration, so I hold it near current rather than raising further. walk_forward_ema and post_shock_reversal both show 7d win-rates below 30% and negative Sharpes with negative pnl, triggering rule 2 cuts toward 0.20; tsmom has a positive 7d Sharpe (2.28) but sub-40% win-rate so it receives only a small trim. sentiment_strategy has full confluence at 100% across both windows with consistent positive composite scores, earning a modest raise despite the BEAR regime neutrality per the sentiment weighting rules.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.06 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: BNB/USDT at +0.50 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.75

🟢 Solana treasury firm SkyAI faces board challenge from would-be acquirer Forward Industries, shareholder group — theblock — Score: +0.51

🔴 Researchers halve quantum resource benchmark for key operation in Bitcoin, Ethereum attack — theblock — Score: -0.48

🔴 Dogecoin sinks 5% to lead majors’ losses, with bitcoin holding $78,000 level — coindesk — Score: -0.40

🔴 Crypto researchers cut Bitcoin and Ethereum quantum attack estimate by 50% — coindesk — Score: -0.32

Academic Footnote

Wen et al. (2022) — overreaction and short-term reversal in crypto.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.