Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-08 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-08: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (6 bullish / 3 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on SOL cut 0.299 (0.75 → 0.45).
• Shadow portfolio: $734 (-26.57%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 73/100; BTC dominance 59.1% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.6% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 8 days | Next CPI: in 3 days | position-size modifier 0.90×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 6 BULL / 3 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.93 ✅ | BTC/XRP: r=0.89 ✅ | ETH/XRP: r=0.88 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.87 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.86 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.84 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

SOL/USDT (BULL):

walk_forward_ema is the clearest cut: 7d win-rate of 23% with a deeply negative Sharpe (-13.07) and -474 pnl triggers rule 2/3 hard, bringing it near the floor; ema_cross is similarly punished (29% win, -10.15 Sharpe, -384 pnl) and stays low despite the BULL regime — data overrides the regime prior per rule 6. bollinger is the surprise standout in a BULL regime with an exceptional 7d Sharpe of 10.61 and +491 pnl, so it earns a raise per rule 4 even though it is a mean-reversion strategy (conflict noted but data wins); volume_spike gets a modest lift on solid 7d metrics (3.93 Sharpe, +201 pnl) and rsi_macd is pulled down from its inflated 0.747 given 34% 7d win-rate and negative Sharpe despite the BULL prior. sentiment_strategy earns a small raise on strong coverage (4 sources), perfect confluence, and a positive composite; tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy have zero trades so they are held near their current weights per rule 1.

DOGE/USDT (BEAR):

rsi_macd, ema_cross, bollinger, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades across both windows, so rule 1 applies and weights are held at their current values. volume_spike is the only price-based strategy with meaningful data: 72 trades on 7d with a Sharpe of 13.28 and +860 pnl, though the 35% win-rate is below the rule-4 threshold; its positive risk-adjusted return and regime-neutral character justify a modest lift to 0.52. post_shock_reversal fires rule 2/3 hard (18% 7d win-rate, Sharpe -5.43, -93.81 pnl) and is structurally misaligned with a BEAR trend, so it is cut toward 0.10; walk_forward_ema similarly shows 0% win on 2 trades with Sharpe -11.88 and is cut to 0.10. sentiment_strategy maintains its elevated weight given 100% confluence across 4 sources on both windows with a consistently mild positive composite, and tsmom receives a token nudge to 0.22 reflecting its single profitable trade but thin sample under rule 1.

BTC/USDT (BULL):

In this confirmed BULL regime, rsi_macd is cut significantly (7d win 36%, Sharpe -1.45, pnl -39.90) per rules 2-3 despite the momentum-friendly regime — data overrides the prior (rule 6). volume_spike is pushed near the floor (7d win 27%, Sharpe -4.89, pnl -125.49), satisfying rule 2’s persistent underperformance threshold. ema_cross remains elevated (7d Sharpe 2.65, pnl +59.93, BULL-aligned) but trimmed slightly from 0.792 toward 0.75 for smoothness, while walk_forward_ema is reduced from 0.630 to 0.48 due to its negative 7d Sharpe (-1.26) conflicting with its momentum mandate. tsmom is held near current (rule 1: only 2 seven-day trades), sentiment_strategy is modestly reduced from 0.736 to 0.72 reflecting good but mildly weak confluence signals, and correlation_strategy and macro_strategy are held at their current near-neutral weights as both report zero activity.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.06 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Harmony to fully sunset Layer 1, proposes token migration to Ethereum for AI video initiative — theblock — Score: +0.80

🟢 XRP Ledger has fewer active accounts than last year, but bigger trades and more value — coindesk — Score: +0.66

🟢 South Korea’s Hanwha develops tokenized securities platform on Avalanche as local regulation takes shape: report — theblock — Score: +0.53

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.44

⚪ Better and Coinbase’s bitcoin-backed mortgages can reuse borrowers’ collateral — coindesk — Score: +0.12

Academic Footnote

Addy et al. (2024) — cointegration-based crypto pairs strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.