Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-06 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-06: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (5 bullish / 4 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: walk_forward_ema on ETH raised 0.339 (0.12 → 0.46).
• Shadow portfolio: $734 (-26.61%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 75/100; BTC dominance 59.3% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.5% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 10 days | Next CPI: in 5 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 5 BULL / 4 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.91 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.89 ✅ | BTC/XRP: r=0.89 ✅ | ETH/XRP: r=0.88 ✅ | BTC/SOL: r=0.87 ✅ | ETH/AVAX: r=0.85 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

ETH/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd is cut hard: 7d shows 0% win-rate and a sharpe of -11.85 with negative pnl on only 5 trades — rule 2 fires and it is reduced to near-floor despite the BULL regime favouring momentum (data overrides regime per rule 6). ema_cross likewise conflicts with the BULL prior, posting a 32% win-rate and -6.18 Sharpe on 41 7d trades — persistent underperformance means it stays depressed, with only a token lift from its strong 24h window which is too short to override. bollinger is kept near its current weight despite the BULL headwind because its 7d metrics are positive (46% win, +11.51 Sharpe, +398 pnl) and its elevated Sharpe is suspicious in scale but directionally consistent, warranting only a mild regime-aligned trim. sentiment_strategy earns a modest raise given 100% confluence across 4 sources and a consistently positive composite, while tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all trigger the low-sample guard (0 trades / no signals) and are held within ~0.03 of their current weights.

WIF/USDT (BEAR):

rsi_macd, ema_cross, bollinger, tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades across both windows — rule 1 (low-sample guard) applies strictly, so they are held at or near their current weights. volume_spike has 50 7d trades with a positive Sharpe (1.80) and positive pnl but a poor 28% win-rate that triggers rule 2 pressure downward; however, it is the only strategy generating real signal volume in a BEAR regime that is regime-neutral by nature, so I nudge it modestly up from 0.149 to 0.30 on balance — the Sharpe and pnl outweigh the win-rate concern in context. post_shock_reversal shows 23% 7d win-rate (rule 2 partial fire) and a catastrophic 24h window (0% win, deeply negative Sharpe and pnl), but the 7d Sharpe of 1.21 and positive pnl partially offset; I raise it modestly from 0.350 to 0.30 — actually trimming slightly to reflect the 24h deterioration and BEAR regime conflict (mean-reversion against a confirmed downtrend). walk_forward_ema has 32 7d trades with only 31% win-rate (borderline rule 2) but an exceptional 7d Sharpe of 3.69 and solid pnl of 204.83 — in a BEAR regime this momentum-family strategy is regime-aligned, so I raise it from 0.414 to 0.45 trusting the volatility-adjusted Sharpe signal. sentiment_strategy has good 7d coverage (3 sources), 100% confluence, and a mildly positive composite; it is regime-neutral, so I hold it near current, trimming marginally from 0.715 to 0.68 to reflect the mild bullish sentiment conflicting with the BEAR price regime.

DOGE/USDT (BEAR):

Nearly every price-based strategy has zero trades in both windows, so rule 1 (low-sample guard) applies universally and weights are held within ±0.05 of current. Volume_spike is the sole active price voter with 55 7d trades, but its 27% win-rate breaches the rule-2 threshold (<30%); however, its positive pnl (269.53) and elevated Sharpe (5.01) suggest the wins are large and offsetting, so I apply only a modest reduction rather than a hard cut, landing at 0.28 — a small upward nudge from 0.239 is tempered by the poor win-rate. Sentiment_strategy shows excellent 7d coverage (4 sources), strong confluence (100%), and a mildly positive composite (+0.10), justifying holding it near its already-high 0.734 weight with a negligible trim to 0.73 to reflect the mild bearish regime context. Post_shock_reversal has only 3 7d trades (rule 1 applies) so it remains pinned at 0.137 despite a positive Sharpe; all other zero-trade strategies are held exactly at current weight.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.08 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 4 sources monitored today:

🟢 XRP Ledger has fewer active accounts than last year, but bigger trades and more value — coindesk — Score: +0.66

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.44

🟢 Ripple expands college sports push with XRP partnership at Florida — theblock — Score: +0.36

🟢 US bitcoin ETFs report the largest inflow day since January, worth $731 million — theblock — Score: +0.29

⚠️ Dear Brits, please save more — ft_markets — Score: +0.16

Academic Footnote

Wen et al. (2022) — overreaction and short-term reversal in crypto.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.