Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-09-05 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-09-05: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (5 bullish / 4 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on BTC raised 0.345 (0.24 → 0.59).
• Shadow portfolio: $730 (-26.97%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads greed at 75/100; BTC dominance 59.7% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.5% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 11 days | Next CPI: in 6 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 5 BULL / 4 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): XRP/DOGE: r=0.89 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.89 ✅ | BTC/DOGE: r=0.86 ✅ | SUI/AVAX: r=0.86 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.85 ✅ | DOGE/AVAX: r=0.85 ✅

Lead-lag (PREDICTIVE — sentiment leads price):

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

BTC/USDT (BULL):

volume_spike is the clearest cut: 7d win-rate of 29% with a deeply negative Sharpe of -4.77 and -136.84 pnl triggers rule 2/3, pushing it near the floor; bollinger similarly suffers a -1.58 7d Sharpe and 30% win-rate in a BULL regime where band-walks are expected, so it is cut hard per rules 2-3 and regime misalignment. tsmom remains the top-weighted price voter given its positive 7d Sharpe (2.62) and pnl (+62.47) with adequate trade count, fully aligned with the BULL regime; ema_cross holds near current on borderline 7d metrics (38% win, Sharpe 1.01) with regime support, while rsi_macd gets a modest lift on its thin-but-positive 7d Sharpe despite the low-sample guard limiting the move. sentiment_strategy retains a high weight on strong 7d confluence (100%) and good source coverage; post_shock_reversal is nudged down slightly as a mean-reversion strategy misaligned with a confirmed BULL trend despite its positive 7d Sharpe; correlation_strategy and macro_strategy are held near their current weights given zero trades and no actionable signals.

WIF/USDT (BEAR):

volume_spike is the clearest cut: 63 trades over 7d with only 19% win-rate, deeply negative Sharpe (-6.94) and -517 pnl, triggering rule 2 for a hard reduction toward 0.10. ema_cross has 7d Sharpe of -10.16 with 0% win-rate (rule 3, and conflicts with BEAR regime despite being a trend-follower), so it is cut to near its floor; bollinger also has negative Sharpe and a single losing trade, so it is trimmed per rule 3. walk_forward_ema is paradoxical — catastrophic 24h (0% win, -145 pnl) but a strong 7d Sharpe of 5.01 with +298 pnl and 35 trades, so the weekly signal wins per the rubric and it receives a modest lift; post_shock_reversal shows a positive 7d Sharpe (3.04) and pnl (+176) but sub-30% win-rate, so it earns only a small hold near current given the win-rate warning. rsi_macd and tsmom have zero trades (rule 1, hold within ±0.05); sentiment_strategy retains a high weight on strong 7d coverage (3 sources, 100% confluence); correlation_strategy and macro_strategy are zero-trade regime-neutral voters held near their current weights.

AVAX/USDT (BEAR):

post_shock_reversal is the clearest action item: 27 trades over 7d with 15% win-rate, -10.21 Sharpe, and -237 pnl triggers rule 2 (persistent underperformance) and rule 3 (deeply negative Sharpe), so I cut it hard toward 0.10; this also conflicts with the BEAR regime where a mean-reversion bounce strategy is particularly dangerous (rule 6). tsmom has only 3 7d trades but all three lost (-7.65 Sharpe, -107 pnl) — low-sample guard keeps the move modest but the signal is unambiguously negative so I reduce it to 0.10. volume_spike has ample data (74 7d trades) with 24% win-rate and negative Sharpe, satisfying rules 2 and 3, so I cut it meaningfully; bollinger’s single-trade data invokes rule 1 (keep within ±0.05) but that one trade also posted a large negative Sharpe, so a small trim to 0.18 is warranted. rsi_macd, ema_cross, and walk_forward_ema have zero trades across both windows — rule 1 applies and I hold them near current weights with a marginal BEAR-regime nudge favouring momentum strategies over mean-reversion. Sentiment_strategy maintains its elevated weight given 4-source 7d coverage and 75% confluence at a mildly positive composite, though its bullish lean is noted as a slight conflict with the BEAR regime.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.12 (bullish) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: SOL/USDT at +0.60 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 4 sources monitored today:

⚠️ Hargreaves Lansdown offers crypto ETNs nearly a year after ban was lifted — ft_markets — Score: -0.99

🟢 US bitcoin ETFs report the largest inflow day since January, worth $731 million — theblock — Score: +0.45

⚠️ Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.44

🔴 Dogecoin becomes only losing bet for Japan-listed firm as it sells altcoins for bitcoin — coindesk — Score: -0.38

🟢 Hyperscale Data shares hit all-time low as company flips Michigan site from bitcoin mining into AI — theblock — Score: +0.38

Academic Footnote

Care & Cumming (2024) — algorithmic trading and crypto market quality.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.