Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-08-26 — BULL regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-08-26: BULL regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: BULL (5 bullish / 4 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: rsi_macd on XRP cut 0.314 (0.73 → 0.42).
• Shadow portfolio: $739 (-26.13%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads extreme greed at 81/100; BTC dominance 59.6% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 9.6% (risk-on); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 21 days | Next CPI: in 16 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bullish: 5 BULL / 4 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): SUI/AVAX: r=0.88 ✅ | BNB/SUI: r=0.87 ✅ | DOGE/SUI: r=0.85 ✅ | SOL/BNB: r=0.83 ✅ | DOGE/AVAX: r=0.83 ✅ | SOL/SUI: r=0.82 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

XRP/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd is cut sharply from 0.73: 7d win-rate of 33% with a deeply negative Sharpe (-1.60) and negative pnl trigger rules 2-3, and the brutal 24h Sharpe (-21.33) confirms ongoing deterioration — a conflict-rule case where momentum is losing in a BULL regime so data overrides the regime prior. ema_cross and walk_forward_ema both show strong 7d metrics (50%/7.21 Sharpe and 48%/6.37 Sharpe respectively) with large positive pnl, qualifying for rule-4 raises and BULL regime alignment, so both are held near their current elevated levels. bollinger is an anomaly in a BULL regime but its 7d Sharpe of 8.89 and +788 pnl are too strong to ignore per rule 4, so it is raised despite the regime conflict; volume_spike is cut further on negative 7d Sharpe and pnl. tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades on both windows, triggering rule 1 (hold within ±0.05 of current); sentiment_strategy maintains a high weight given 100% confluence across 3 sources on both windows.

BTC/USDT (BULL):

rsi_macd and correlation_strategy/macro_strategy have zero 7d trades so rule 1 applies — weights held near current with minimal adjustment. tsmom is the standout performer (50% win, Sharpe 10.73, +523 pnl over 7d) in a BULL regime and earns a lift to 0.75; post_shock_reversal also posts strong 7d metrics (Sharpe 11.23, +590 pnl) despite being mean-reversion-leaning, so data overrides the regime prior and it holds near 0.60. walk_forward_ema is cut sharply (22% win, Sharpe -8.05, -238 pnl on 7d) — a direct conflict with the BULL prior where it should shine, making this a rule-6 data-wins cut toward 0.18; ema_cross and volume_spike also post negative 7d Sharpe and sub-33% win rates so both are reduced under rules 2-3 despite the bullish regime. Bollinger’s 7d Sharpe of 8.59 and positive pnl are strong but it faces a band-walk risk in a BULL trend, so it is held modestly below current; sentiment_strategy retains a high weight given 100% confluence across three sources with positive composite sentiment aligning with the BULL regime.

SOL/USDT (BULL):

Bollinger is the standout performer (7d 48% win, Sharpe 11.12, +661 pnl) earning a strong raise despite being mean-reversion in a BULL regime — the data clearly wins over the regime prior per rule 6; volume_spike similarly earned a raise on its exceptional 7d Sharpe of 8.81 and +653 pnl. Both ema_cross and walk_forward_ema show persistent 7d underperformance (32% win, Sharpe -5.06, -254 pnl) triggering rules 2-3 and a cut toward their floor, compounded by the conflict that momentum strategies are losing in a BULL regime. rsi_macd and tsmom are cut from their inflated current weights due to poor 24h performance and sub-40% 7d win rates with near-zero or negative pnl, but their modestly positive 7d Sharpe prevents a deeper cut; post_shock_reversal is nudged down slightly as a mean-reversion strategy in a BULL regime with a weak 7d win rate, while sentiment stays near neutral on sparse, low-signal composite scores, and correlation/macro hold near their current weights given zero trade activity.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: +0.50 (bullish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.01 (neutral) — “Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Banco Santander, S.A. and Santander H”.

Most-talked alt: DOGE/USDT at +0.81 (bullish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🔴 BounceBit to sunset blockchain, migrate to BNB Chain after $3 million exploit — theblock — Score: -0.79

🟢 XRP on track for biggest weekly gain in 21 months as Treasury buyback spurs ‘curve control’ hopes — coindesk — Score: +0.79

🟢 XRP leads broad altcoin rally as bitcoin’s biggest weekly gain in two years lifts crypto — theblock — Score: +0.53

🔴 Ethereum lending app Term Finance loses $8.5 million after attacker buys voting power — coindesk — Score: -0.36

⚠️ Iran threatens 46 ships in Strait of Hormuz transit crackdown — ft_markets — Score: +0.11

Academic Footnote

Care & Cumming (2024) — algorithmic trading and crypto market quality.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.