Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-07-18 — SIDEWAYS regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-07-18: SIDEWAYS regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: SIDEWAYS (0 bullish / 1 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: bollinger on WIF raised 0.339 (0.29 → 0.63).
• Shadow portfolio: $751 (-24.95%), 2 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads fear at 31/100; BTC dominance 58.3% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 11.4% (risk-off, money fleeing crypto); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 11 days | Next CPI: in 25 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bearish: 0 BULL / 1 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/SOL: r=0.86 ✅ | SOL/DOGE: r=0.86 ✅ | SOL/XRP: r=0.84 ✅ | BTC/ETH: r=0.84 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.84 ✅ | XRP/DOGE: r=0.83 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

WIF/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

volume_spike is the clearest loser: 57 trades over 7d with only 23% win-rate, Sharpe -5.46, and -381 pnl — rule 2/3 mandate a steep cut from 0.416 to 0.15. tsmom posted 0% win-rate across 6 trades with Sharpe -9.39 and -272 pnl, triggering rule 2/3 to cut it toward the floor (0.10), and this is reinforced by the SIDEWAYS regime which disfavours momentum. post_shock_reversal has genuine volume (59 trades, 32% win, but a striking +629 pnl and Sharpe 10.06), and as a mean-reversion strategy it is regime-aligned in SIDEWAYS, so it is held near its current weight at 0.45 despite the sub-50% win-rate; walk_forward_ema gets a modest lift to 0.32 on positive 7d pnl and Sharpe 2.58, though its 24h collapse tempers enthusiasm. bollinger, rsi_macd, ema_cross, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have near-zero trades and are held within ±0.05 of current per rule 1; sentiment_strategy is nudged down slightly to 0.39 on sparse coverage (2 sources) and only 50% confluence.

SUI/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

rsi_macd, ema_cross, tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades in both windows (rule 1), so they are held near their current weights with no meaningful adjustment. volume_spike has a catastrophic 24h window (7% win, -28.40 Sharpe, -164 pnl) but a positive 7d Sharpe (1.96) and modest pnl (+96); the 24h collapse is alarming and in a SIDEWAYS regime volume_spike is noisy, so I trim it moderately from 0.552 toward 0.45 — the 7d positives prevent a deeper cut. bollinger (2 trades on 7d, rule 1 low-sample guard) gets a small bump to 0.38, consistent with SIDEWAYS regime alignment but no large move on thin data. post_shock_reversal has 74 7d trades with a 39% win-rate below the 55% threshold for rule 4 and below the 30% floor only marginally, but its Sharpe (17.44) and pnl (+856) are strongly positive; the win-rate discrepancy signals large wins compensating many small losses — acceptable for a mean-reversion strategy in SIDEWAYS, so I hold it near current but trim slightly to 0.57 given the sub-50% win-rate caution. walk_forward_ema clears rule 4 on 7d (64% win, Sharpe 16.47, +354 pnl) despite being a momentum strategy in a SIDEWAYS regime — data wins over regime prior (rule 6) — so I raise it from 0.486 to 0.55. sentiment_strategy has sparse coverage (2 sources, 50% confluence) warranting a modest downward nudge to 0.41 per sentiment weighting guidelines.

ETH/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

Bollinger is the SIDEWAYS regime favourite but its 7d data is deeply damning — 29% win-rate, negative Sharpe (-1.09), and negative pnl — so rule 2/3 override the regime prior and I cut it meaningfully from 0.698 toward 0.45 rather than reward a band-walk casualty. Volume_spike has a split personality: the 24h window is terrible (0% win, sharpe -34.59) but the 7d window is strongly positive (32% win-rate understates it given Sharpe 5.55 and +249 pnl), so I trust the larger 7d sample and raise it modestly plus apply the SIDEWAYS bump. Post_shock_reversal shows a very high 24h Sharpe but only 33% 7d win-rate with mixed pnl, so I hold it near current weight with a slight trim. All zero-trade strategies (rsi_macd, ema_cross, tsmom, walk_forward_ema, correlation_strategy, macro_strategy) are held near their current weights per rule 1; sentiment_strategy has stable 3-source coverage and 67% confluence at a mildly positive composite so it holds close to its current weight with a token trim for conservatism.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: -1.00 (bearish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.13 (bullish) — “These underperforming trades could yield big returns over next six months”.

Most-talked alt: WIF/USDT at -1.00 (bearish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 4 sources monitored today:

🟢 JPMorgan says bitcoin outlook sees ‘encouraging sign’ as Strategy boosts cash reserves — theblock — Score: +0.79

🟢 Ether outruns bitcoin as ETF money returns, almost all of from BlackRock’s fund — coindesk — Score: +0.30

⚠️ These underperforming trades could yield big returns over next six months — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.25

⚪ This $28 million ether market bet aims to profit from pure market chaos — coindesk — Score: -0.15

⚠️ EQT boosted by strong fundraising momentum and earnings growth — ft_markets — Score: +0.12

Academic Footnote

Addy et al. (2024) — cointegration-based crypto pairs strategies.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.