Daily Alpha Brief — 2026-07-11 — SIDEWAYS regime across majors

Bayesian crypto brief for 2026-07-11: SIDEWAYS regime, strategy performance, weight shifts, and quant-vs-crowd sentiment across 9 symbols.

TL;DR

• Dominant regime: SIDEWAYS (0 bullish / 3 bearish of 9 symbols).
• Top signal: volume_spike on ETH cut 0.170 (0.51 → 0.34).
• Shadow portfolio: $765 (-23.46%), 1 open, 35% win rate.

Shadow portfolio value since inception (dashed line = $1,000 starting capital).

Current Bayesian reliability weights, averaged across the universe.

Detected regime per symbol (EMA200 + ADX); % = lead-strategy conviction.

🌐 Market Indices

Crowd reads fear at 31/100; BTC dominance 58.6% signals balanced.

🌐 Market Overview

Economic (FRED):

Stablecoin dominance 11.2% (risk-off, money fleeing crypto); yield curve regime Flat.

Funding Rates (contrarian — heavy positive = crowded longs to fade):

Economic Calendar: Next FOMC: in 18 days | Next CPI: in 4 days | position-size modifier 1.00×.

📊 Regime Analysis

Regime per symbol from EMA200 + ADX on daily candles, with the fusion signal.

The book is broadly bearish: 0 BULL / 3 BEAR of 9 symbols.

🔗 Correlation Signals

Stable pairs (r > 0.70): BTC/ETH: r=0.90 ✅ | ETH/DOGE: r=0.84 ✅ | ETH/SOL: r=0.84 ✅ | DOGE/SUI: r=0.83 ✅ | ETH/BNB: r=0.83 ✅ | ETH/SUI: r=0.82 ✅

Index signals: BTC dominance NEUTRAL → no rotation; Fear & Greed contrarian NONE.

⚙️ Strategy Performance

Aggregate 7-day performance per strategy (replayed across the universe). Edge = win-rate × avg P&L per trade — the table is sorted by it.

All P&L figures normalized to a 100 USDT position size for comparability (not summed across symbols).

🧠 Bayesian Weight Shifts

ETH/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

rsi_macd, ema_cross, tsmom, correlation_strategy, and macro_strategy all have zero trades across both windows, so rule 1 applies and weights stay within ±0.05 of current. bollinger has only 1 trade (7d) with a deeply negative Sharpe of -7.22, so rule 1 caps the move but the negative signal warrants a small trim from 0.340 to 0.30. volume_spike fires rule 2 and 3 hard: 67 trades on 7d with only 21% win rate and negative Sharpe (-0.35), plus a catastrophic 24h Sharpe of -15.86, so it is cut meaningfully from 0.507 to 0.30 despite the SIDEWAYS bump that regime would normally grant. post_shock_reversal has 33 trades at 18% win rate and negative Sharpe (-0.53) with negative pnl, triggering rules 2-3 and cutting it toward 0.25; walk_forward_ema meets the 5-trade threshold with a positive Sharpe (0.52) and positive pnl, earning a modest hold near current minus a small trim reflecting borderline metrics; sentiment_strategy retains elevated trust with 3 sources, 67% confluence, and mildly positive composite, nudged slightly down from 0.641 to 0.62 to reflect that the composite signal is weak rather than strong.

WIF/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

All price-based strategies except post_shock_reversal have zero trades in both windows, triggering rule 1 (low-sample guard) and keeping them within +/-0.05 of their current weights. post_shock_reversal has meaningful 7d data (36 trades) showing a 22% win rate, negative Sharpe of -1.31, and negative pnl — rule 2 fires (win rate < 30%) so I cut it from 0.416 toward 0.28, with further reduction tempered because it is a mean-reversion strategy with some regime alignment in SIDEWAYS but the data clearly contradicts that prior (rule 6). walk_forward_ema has only 3 7d trades (rule 1 applies) so despite a strong Sharpe of 2.20 I hold it at its current weight with no move. sentiment_strategy shows sparse coverage (2 sources), 50% confluence, and a near-neutral composite of +0.06, so I nudge it slightly down from 0.444 to 0.42 to reflect weak source coverage and low confluence per the sentiment weighting guidance.

SUI/USDT (SIDEWAYS):

volume_spike is cut hard: 63 trades over 7d with only 17% win-rate, negative Sharpe of -8.92, and -412 pnl triggers rule 2 (persistent underperformance with negative pnl), overriding its anomalous 24h spike (likely noise). bollinger is penalised despite SIDEWAYS regime alignment because 7d win-rate of 29% and Sharpe of -0.98 reflect active underperformance (rules 2-3), dropping it from 0.551 toward 0.35. post_shock_reversal earns a modest raise to 0.55: 59 trades, positive 7d pnl of +216 and Sharpe of 5.02 are strong, but the 24h window shows 0% win and deeply negative Sharpe, signalling recent deterioration that tempers the boost. walk_forward_ema is trimmed from 0.576 to 0.40 on a 24% 7d win-rate despite a positive Sharpe, with negative 24h signals adding caution; all zero-trade strategies (rsi_macd, ema_cross, tsmom, correlation_strategy, macro_strategy) are held at current weight per rule 1, and sentiment is nudged slightly down on sparse coverage and weak confluence.

📡 Signal Outlook

💼 Shadow Portfolio

Open positions:

$1,000 USDT paper portfolio, 1% risk/trade, MEXC fees modelled. No real capital is deployed.

📡 Discourse Radar

Crowd-vs-quant sentiment from CryptoCompare news, crypto RSS, the macro feeds (FT / Fed / CNBC), and the Fear & Greed index. (Reddit retired — Responsible Builder Policy restrictions, 2026.)

• Fear & Greed: -0.50 (bearish crowd).
• Macro signal (FT/Fed/CNBC): +0.10 (bullish) — “Circle wins licence for some US banking activities”.

Most-talked alt: WIF/USDT at -0.50 (bearish crowd lean).

📰 Today’s Key Reads

Curated from 3 sources monitored today:

🟢 Ethereum Foundation says AI agents find real bugs, but most are false positives — theblock — Score: +0.73

🟢 Why this Wall Street veteran is betting on Avalanche — theblock — Score: +0.38

⚠️ Labour MPs push for permanent ban on crypto political donations — ft_markets — Score: -0.20

⚠️ Circle wins licence for some US banking activities — ft_markets — Score: +0.19

⚠️ SpaceX to join the Nasdaq-100 in a fast-tracked process that will drive huge ETF buying demand — cnbc_finance — Score: +0.17

Academic Footnote

Miralles-Quirós (2022) — post-shock reversals in digital assets.

Disclaimer

This is algorithmic analysis only, not financial advice.